June 1 is the start of the hurricane season

Home Forum Community Specific USVI General Environment June 1 is the start of the hurricane season

This topic contains 3 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  Daren 6 months ago.

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  • #1814

    Daren
    Participant

    “NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.”

    Not hoping but assuming that the 2018 hurricane season is as unkind as that of 2017, what is the game plan of the powers-that-be in the VI? Moreover, what is the game plan of the ordinary citizen? Will we see more permanent relocations, closures of businesses and services,or is there some last-minute plan that is such a good plan that it can be launched and/or publicised at the last minute amd still be 100% effective?

    • This topic was modified 6 months, 3 weeks ago by  Daren.
    #1828

    Sydney Paul
    Participant

    I definitely believe that we’re going to see more people leave the island permanently, which is super unfortunate. Besides the fact that a storm threat is going to throw the entire population into a collective PTSD episode after the sheer experience we had last year, I don’t think that the community has much faith in the powers-that-be to support us before and after a storm hits. There’s really low morale in the Territory and an almost non-existent tolerance for “the struggle” now that others might expect our community, and especially small island-nations”, to endure following disasters because of our location in the Hurricane Basin. That shouldn’t be the case though. We should really be some of the most prepared and resilient communities when it comes to natural disasters because of our location and predictive hurricane season. Other countries should be mirroring our disaster planning. However, and unfortunately, that is not the case.

    There’s needs to be more community education when it comes to disaster planning, and not just in the few weeks leading up to hurricane season, but year-round. It’s my hope that VITEMA becomes more aggressive in getting information out. Let’s start with simply getting the VITEMA website up and operating. Without leadership in disaster planning, more people will definitely take the more convenient, safer, and less-stressful way out–leaving the islands. I do pray that we have an uneventful hurricane season.

    #1865

    MPepco
    Participant

    Hey Sydney, I hear you on this. Sitting through the storm is bad but the aftermath of no electricity and the disruption to normal life is awful.

    Powerful storms will be a reality until the world gets its act together and addresses climate change. This isn’t going to happen quickly, easily or cheaply and there is a need for educating people why change is needed. Until then we can only hope we can get smarter about how we prepare.

    Its cheaper and easier to build on flat land but think about it, all our emergency response activities and facilities are located in areas with a high probability of flooding in the event of a Tsunami or major storm surge. On St Thomas the airport, port, hospital and power plant are easily destroyed because of where they are located. Even VITEMA isn’t in a protected ares.

    #1902

    Daren
    Participant

    With two Category 4 hurricanes – Aletta and Bud – forming in roughly four days in the eastern Pacific Ocean, you may be wondering if we’re in for another active Atlantic hurricane season as well.

    The short answer: It’s unclear, according to our analysis of past similar quick eastern Pacific season starts.

    In reliable records dating to 1971, NOAA’s historical hurricane database has 10 other years in which the first two named storms in the eastern Pacific basin were hurricanes: 2015, 2011, 1999, 1996, 1995, 1990, 1983, 1976, 1973 and 1971
    Admittedly, this is by no means a large sample size for any statistical study.

    In those 10 years, the average number of Atlantic named storms (12.3), hurricanes (6.6), and major hurricanes (2.8 Category 3 or stronger) almost exactly matched the 30-year average from 1981-2010 of 13, 7 and 3.

    Of course, averages mask extremes. There was quite a range in the number of named storms, from a mere 4 in 1983 to 19 in both 1995 and 2011, and in hurricanes from 3 in 1983 to 11 in 1995.

    So, this isn’t terribly helpful from a seasonal forecast perspective.

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